Global economic growth forecasts remain on the low side, but regionally the catch up of Asian economies persists with
European stagnation seeing its ports slide down the volume table in favour of ports in the Middle East, India and the Far
East, where China remains dominant, Seatrade Maritime reported.Not only do ports and terminals in have to contend
with the challenges faced in fast developing countries, but the geopolitical scene is also taking its toll, with both US and
European ports affected in the short to medium term.
World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that world merchandise trade saw a steeper than expected decline of 1.2% last
year but it forecasts increases by 2.6% and 3.3% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Overall merchandise trade had
increased 6.3% by the end of 2023 compared to 2019 figures.
Major US ports also suffered last year with the combined Los Angeles and Long Beach figures showing a 12/6% decline
and New York and New Jersey falling 17.7% year-on-year.
Although ports in consumer countries have seen a dip, in developing regions trading rules are still also in transition, as
Hadland points out: “There have been major strides to improve trading relationships between Asian countries – lowering
tariffs and reducing other barriers to trade. Additionally, diversification of manufacturing outside of China has generated
additional intra-Asia flows as supply chains are also becoming intra-regional. Increased consumer power from these
markets us also part of the story, but not the whole story.” In the long term macro-economic growth will come from the
Middle East, Asia, Latin America and later Africa, said former transport analyst Mark McVicar, but he argues, “the US
economy is doing well, employment is higher and with 2.4% growth it is showing resilience”.In Europe the economy is
suffering from a number of shocks, with ports having lost significant volumes bound for Russia since the start of the
Ukraine war two years ago, while the effect of the Red Sea crisis has damaged Mediterranean ports, particularly in the
Eastern Med.
As a result Dubai has overtaken Rotterdam, jumping to 10th in the port league table, after it showed some modest
growth, 3.6%, but the main reason that Dubai has overtaken Rotterdam is that the Dutch port has seen a 9% decline in
volumes since 2019. Hamburg, which was even more reliant on Russian trade has lost over 16% of its throughput in the
same period, while Antwerp-Bruges has been stable largely due to the 2022 merger of the two Belgian facilities. She
added that the loss of Russian transhipment volumes was still being felt in Q1 2023 but said that Drewry’s “rolling 12-
month average growth rate was improving to -1.2% in February 2024, with a further improvement projected for March.”
This has been underscored in Q1 2024 figures with Rotterdam reporting a 2% increase to 3.3 million teu and Port of
Antwerp-Bruges reporting a 6% increase to 3.28 million teu compared to the first quarter of 2023.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s alliance, the Gemini Cooperation, may have a role to play in the shifting fortunes of European
terminals. Alphaliner analyst Stefan Verberckmoes noted: “It is indeed surprising to note that Tanger Med is already a
larger container port than Hamburg.” With major carriers diverting around the Cape the Eastern Med in particular is being
served by feeder vessels from transhipment hubs on the route to North Europe, at the western entrance to the
Mediterranean. Tanger Med has four container terminals and is operated by APM Terminals, Eurogate, and the Tanger
Alliance, and handled 8.61 million teu last year, eclipsing Hamburg’s 7.74 million teu, with the German port volumes
declining 16.5% and the Moroccan port, strategically situated in the Strait of Gibraltar, increasing 79.4% since 2019.
“Much of the recent growth at Tanger Med relates to the West African market, as this hub port plays a critical role in
many carrier networks to service this port range. Additionally, new capacity has been added at the port which has
facilitated the impressive growth figures,” said Hadland. Source : portnews