Snake Eyes

A gambling addict gets a lucky streak after accidentally killing his loan shark, driving him to committ further murders under the belief that this will fuel his newfound "powers".

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Tropes in this episode:

• Accidental Murder: The first murder was a genuine accident that happened during a fight.
• Arc Number: The UnSub believes 8 to be his lucky number. He makes his kills at eight o'clock, leaves eight dollars around the body, and Reid identifies him by his eightball keychain.
• Celebrity Paradox: On the jet, everyone mentions their favorite mob movies, notably The Godfather Part II, and of course, Joe Mantegna was in the Godfather Part III.
• Contrived Coincidence: Like most gamblers, the UnSub is very superstitious; after accidentally murdering his loan shark, he hits an incidental lucky streak, and when this fades, he murders a high-class prostitute/ gambling groupie that ditched him, which seems to reignite it. After killing a random shop clerk does nothing, it makes the UnSub think the victims has to be associated with him personally for the entirerly imaginary ritual to work. He ends up murdering his best friend before the poker tournament that leads to his capture.
• Driven to Suicide: Realizing how low he's sunk, the Unsub lets his wife go and blows his brains out during the climax.
• Gambler's Fallacy: Played For Horror. Curtis Banks, our UnSub of the week, is a very firm believer in this fallacy and related "perfect system" problems, to the point that when he gets a lucky streak after killing his loan shark in a way with a lot of coincidences (leaving behind a card with a number eight, eight o clock in the evening, etc) he ends up believing that he found a way to unlock a murder-fueled luck superpower.
• Gambling Ruins Lives: The UnSub has completely destroyed his marriage and life with his addiction, and only gets worse when he develops the superstition that he can boost his luck by killing people.
• The Gambling Addict: The UnSub is one. He has already destroyed his life by constantly betting and his wife wants nothing to do with him when he arrives telling her that he has found the perfect system (making clear that he has boasted that many times before and they all failed), even without knowing that this time his "perfect system" involves murdering people.
• Hangover Sensitivity: Garcia is so hungover that her hair hurts.
• In the Blood: Implied, given that the father of the UnSub was also a gambling addict.
• My God, What Have I Done?: When the UnSub sees himself in the mirror holding his wife at gunpoint, he gets flashbacks to the murders he committed, realizing what his gambling addiction has done to him. This is especially hard for him because he was convinced to kill his best friend to boost his luck at the poker tournament.
• Parental Abandonment: The Unsub's gambling addict father abandoned his family after finally hitting a jackpot, and died six months later in a Vegas hotel room, having drunk himself to death after blowing through his winnings.
• Platonic Life-Partners: Morgan and Garcia, which is why Garcia is so worried when she wakes up with a bad hangover and Morgan in her shower: She's afraid they had a one night stand which would ruin their relationship, but Morgan assures her that didn't happen.
• Shout-Out: The Godfather and The Untouchables are among the team members' favorite gangster movies. Reid's is La Cercle Rouge, a seventies movie.
• Surprisingly Realistic Outcome: In the final act, the BAU figures out that their suspect is going to enter a high-stakes card tournament to get enough money to leave the country (not to mention it may endanger more people as he tries to "recharge" his luck) and ask HQ for money so Reid can enter undercover. While the BAU has been given quite a lot of resources for sting operations before, this time the request is soundly denied — Serial Killer or no, the U.S. Government takes a lousy view at risking its money in gambling. Rossi ends up fronting the money out of his own pocket.
• Take Me Instead: Rossi offers himself in exchange for the UnSub's two female hostages.

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Rossi: George Augustus Sala said, "A gambler with a system must be, to a greater or lesser extent, insane."